Decision-Making Under Pressure with US Army Colonel (Ret.) & Surgeon, Dr. Ron Martin

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Decision-Making Under Pressure

Two Piers Podcast

Good decisions are rarely made with perfect information.

Sometimes there is time to pause, gather more data, and ask for help. Sometimes the window is closing and a decision has to be made with what is already available. And sometimes the hardest part is not choosing between two options at all. It is recognizing whether more information would actually change the options in front of you.

That tension runs through this episode of the Two Piers Podcast, where Erica D’Eramo is joined by Dr. Ron Martin for a conversation about decision-making, preparation, judgment, feedback, and leadership under pressure.

Dr. Martin brings an unusually broad perspective. He is a professor emeritus of surgery, former associate dean of a medical school, former chief physician executive of two large healthcare clinic systems, and a retired U.S. Army colonel and senior combat surgeon. Across medicine, military service, healthcare administration, education, and organizational leadership, he has spent much of his career making and reviewing decisions where the stakes were real and the information was often incomplete.

A Career Shaped by Decisions Along the Way

Dr. Martin’s own career was not the product of a carefully mapped plan.

He began in medicine, joined the Army Reserves during residency, was mobilized during the Gulf War, and gradually moved further into leadership, administration, education, and systems management. Along the way, opportunities appeared, some expected and many not.

One early lesson came from a chairman who told him, in effect, that if he wanted any say in how a program developed, he needed to be in the room where decisions were being made.

That became part of a larger career pattern. Early on, say yes to opportunities. In the middle, do what you committed to do. Later, become much more selective about where your effort can actually make a difference.

There is a useful leadership lesson in that progression. Decision-making is not only about isolated moments of choice. It is also about understanding where you are in the arc of your work, what you have capacity for, and which decisions deserve your attention.

Better Decisions Start Well Before the Decision

One of the clearest ideas in the conversation is that strong decision-making depends heavily on preparation.

In surgery, military operations, emergency response, and organizational leadership, the moment of decision is often too late to begin building the capability you need.

You prepare by understanding the system. You learn what can go wrong. You clarify roles. You practice. You build relationships and feedback loops. You develop enough familiarity with the environment that, when something unexpected happens, you are not starting from zero.

Dr. Martin gives an example from pandemic planning. Years before COVID, he had worked on military planning for a potential bird flu outbreak. When the pandemic eventually arrived, that earlier work gave him a framework that could be adapted quickly.

The exact scenario had changed, but the prior thinking still reduced the amount of improvisation required in the moment.

That is part of what preparation does. It reduces cognitive load when the pressure goes up.

Of course, plans do not survive reality intact. Dr. Martin is equally clear about that. Emergencies reveal broken assumptions, missing resources, and conditions no tabletop exercise fully anticipated.

The value of preparation is not that it creates certainty. It gives people enough structure to recognize what is different and respond more intelligently.

A Good Outcome Does Not Always Mean a Good Decision

This is where the conversation turns to a distinction that is easy to lose in hindsight.

A good decision can produce a bad outcome. A questionable decision can occasionally produce a good one.

If we evaluate decisions only by what happened afterward, we risk learning the wrong lesson.

Dr. Martin draws on the tradition of morbidity and mortality conferences in surgery, where clinicians go back through cases in detail and examine what happened. The point is not simply to identify that an outcome was poor. The review has to reconstruct what was reasonably knowable at the time.

Did the team have the right diagnosis? What information was available? Was there additional information they could reasonably have obtained? Given what they knew then, were the actions defensible?

Technology makes this distinction especially visible. Decades ago, a trauma surgeon might have needed to operate simply to determine whether a patient was bleeding internally. Today, imaging can often provide that information before surgery.

It would be a mistake to judge the earlier surgeon using information or tools that did not exist at the time.

The same applies in organizations. Hindsight gives us information the original decision-maker did not have.

That makes one of the most useful questions in any review:

Was this a poor decision, or was it a reasonable decision that produced an unfavorable outcome?

Those are not the same thing.

Not Every Wrong Turn Is a Catastrophe

People also tend to overestimate the permanence of many decisions.

Dr. Martin offers a useful way of thinking about this: a truly bad decision is one that produces a negative outcome you can no longer mitigate.

Many other choices are detours.

Some decisions get you to a better place more quickly. Others take longer. Some require adjustment or recovery. That does not automatically make them catastrophic.

This matters because fear of making the “wrong” decision can lead people to delay choices that are actually recoverable.

Erica connects this to the idea of a worst-case credible scenario. If things go badly, can you recover? What would recovery require? Is the downside inconvenient, expensive, embarrassing, or truly unrecoverable?

Those questions are often more useful than simply asking, “What if I get this wrong?”

More Information Is Not Always More Useful

Toward the end of the episode, Dr. Martin offers one of the sharpest tests for deciding whether to keep gathering information:

Will the additional information expand or contract the options available to you?

If it will, it may be worth waiting.

If it will not, then more information may simply be more noise.

This is a common trap for leaders. Another analysis is requested. Another meeting gets scheduled. Another dataset gets pulled because more information feels safer.

But information has a cost. It takes time, attention, and sometimes money. It can also create new uncertainty without materially changing the decision.

Dr. Martin uses surgery as an example. If a patient is clearly bleeding internally and the only viable action is surgery, it may not matter which organ is bleeding before going to the operating room. The team will find that out when they get there.

The missing detail is interesting, but it does not change the immediate decision.

The same logic applies in less dramatic settings. Before asking for more analysis, leaders can ask whether the answer would actually change what they do next.

Signal, Noise, and Experience

Knowing which information matters is where experience becomes important.

Strong leaders are often good at recognizing the one detail that changes the picture.

That kind of judgment can look like intuition from the outside, but Dr. Martin is cautious about glorifying “gut instinct.” Instinct is most useful when it is built on genuine expertise.

You have to put in the repetitions. More importantly, those repetitions have to involve reflection.

Simply doing something for years does not guarantee improvement. Practice has to include review, feedback, and an effort to get better.

That is why after-action reviews, morbidity and mortality conferences, debriefs, and post-project reviews matter. The experience itself is only part of the learning. The inspection afterward helps convert experience into judgment.

The Culture Around the Decision Matters Too

Decision quality is not solely an individual skill.

A leader may be excellent at analysis and still make poor decisions if the surrounding system filters out inconvenient information.

Dr. Martin remembers worrying that junior colleagues might see him doing something wrong and assume that, because he was the senior surgeon, he must know what he was doing.

He wanted them to speak up.

That sounds simple until hierarchy enters the room.

If people have learned that challenging a senior leader leads to embarrassment, retaliation, or dismissal, the leader may never receive the information needed to make a sound decision.

This is why feedback loops and psychological safety are operational issues, not just cultural ones.

Leaders need people around them who can say, “I don’t think this is right.”

They also need to respond in a way that makes it possible for the next person to do the same.

Critique the Decision Without Turning It Into a Judgment of the Person

That kind of environment also requires people to tolerate criticism.

Dr. Martin talks about the need to separate criticism of an action from criticism of the person who took it.

Someone can make a poor decision without being a poor leader or an unintelligent person.

That distinction sounds obvious, but it can be difficult in practice. Identity gets wrapped up in expertise. A challenge to the decision starts to feel like a challenge to competence.

Once that happens, people begin defending themselves instead of examining the evidence.

Organizations that want better decision-making need to make it normal to say:

“I was wrong.”

“I didn’t know.”

“We need to update our understanding.”

That does not remove accountability. It makes accountability more useful.

Decision Rights and the Problem of Ambiguous Ownership

Even excellent judgment is useless if nobody knows who has the authority to act.

Erica raises the importance of decision rights, particularly in high-hazard industries where ambiguity can have serious consequences.

Who provides input? Who recommends? Who has authority to stop the work? Who ultimately owns the decision?

Organizations often assume this is obvious until a difficult situation exposes that it is not.

Dr. Martin notes that formal hierarchies can help, but an organizational chart does not make decisions by itself. Every box contains a human being.

Strong systems need both structural clarity and leaders who understand the larger objective well enough to adapt when circumstances change.

That adaptability becomes especially important in unusual situations, when the standard process no longer quite fits.

Know the Checklist, and Know When It No Longer Fits

Checklists and procedures exist for good reasons. They reduce cognitive load, preserve hard-earned lessons, and prevent people from having to recreate basic decisions under pressure.

But expertise also means knowing when circumstances have moved outside the checklist.

The episode touches on the emergency landing of US Airways Flight 1549 on the Hudson River. Captain Chesley Sullenberger made decisions in real time based on his understanding of the aircraft and the situation, including actions that did not simply follow the checklist in sequence.

That kind of judgment carries risk.

If a leader departs from procedure and the outcome is poor, the decision will be scrutinized heavily.

But there are situations where blindly following the process is also the wrong choice.

Good leaders need enough preparation and expertise to understand both why the rules exist and when the current conditions require adaptation.

Build Decision-Makers, Not Copies of Yourself

The conversation also moves into delegation and succession.

Leaders often say they want to empower others, only to become uncomfortable when those people make a different choice than they would have made.

Erica sees this frequently in coaching. A senior leader delegates something, gets it back, and thinks, “That’s not how I would have done it.”

But that is not necessarily evidence of a poor decision.

If the expected outcome is clear and the person has legitimate decision authority, development means helping them learn how to think through the problem, not teaching them to reproduce the current leader’s exact answers.

Dr. Martin puts it plainly: you cannot clone yourself, and you should not try.

Organizations become more resilient when decision-making capability is distributed rather than concentrated in one supposedly indispensable person.

What Better Decision-Making Looks Like

By the end of the conversation, a practical picture emerges.

Better decision-making is less about finding a perfect framework and more about building the conditions for sound judgment.

It means preparing before the pressure arrives. Understanding the problem and the limits of what you know. Knowing when more information is worth waiting for and when it will not change the decision. Building teams where people can challenge assumptions. Clarifying who actually owns the choice. Reviewing decisions honestly afterward without rewriting history through hindsight.

And, when the situation requires it, making the best call available with the people, resources, and information you have.

Dr. Martin’s closing advice is straightforward: understand the problem, understand your own limitations and your organization’s limitations, get help when you can, and build trust in your people before you find yourself depending on them in a crisis.

Perhaps most importantly, do not wait until the pressure is on to discover whether those conditions exist.

Questions for Leaders and Teams

For leaders who want to bring some of these ideas into their own organizations, a few questions are worth exploring:

  • Where do important decisions currently get stuck?

  • Who actually owns the decision when the stakes are high?

  • Can people challenge a leader’s assumptions without being penalized?

  • Are post-decision reviews focused on learning, blame, or some uncomfortable mixture of both?

  • Are you judging past decisions using information that was unavailable at the time?

  • Where are you gathering more information even though it will not change the available options?

  • Who else could make the decisions you currently hold, and what would they need in order to do so well?

Two Piers works with leaders, teams, and organizations operating in complex, high-accountability environments. Our work helps strengthen leadership capability, improve communication and decision-making, and build organizational systems that hold up when the pressure increases.

You can learn more about our work at Two Piers Consulting or explore more conversations on the Two Piers Podcast.